The Economy
Private-Credit Problems Are Growing. But This is No ‘Lehman Moment.’
The stresses in private lending are concentrated in just a few sectors and don’t impact bank balance sheets, unlike during the financial crisis.
Long Read
From Freight Rates to Memory Chips, Wholesale Prices Are Rising. The Fed Is Right to Worry.
The producer price index has advanced for three straight months, and that’s before the surge in oil prices. Consumers could soon feel more pain, too.
3 minute read
The Economy Has 4 Problems. The Fed Can’t Fix Them.
The U.S. economy is weaker than it seemed a month ago, and lower interest rates may not be the answer.
4 minute read
The Fed’s Hawks and Doves Are Drifting Further Apart. What It Means for Investors.
Futures markets assign a 99.4% chance that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week.
4 minute read
The Fed Will Cut Rates This Spring if Job Weakness Continues
February’s dismal jobs report suggests the Federal Reserve may loosen monetary policy, even if inflation remains entrenched.
4 minute read
Sure, Inflation Has Cooled. But It’s a Long Way From Cold, No Matter What Trump Says.
President Trump touted falling prices in his State of the Union address, but the annual inflation rate remains well above 2%, hurting affordability.
4 minute read
The Fed’s Hawkish Turn Poses Problems for Warsh. What It Means for Rates.
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, wants to lower interest rates. Most Fed officials believe rates are well positioned, given inflation.
4 minute read
Population Slowdown Could Deliver $100 Billion Hit to U.S. Economy
U.S. population growth has slowed significantly.
3 minute read
Inflation Expectations Approached Crisis Levels Last Year. Why That Matters.
A new study finds that worries about spiraling price growth have approached 1970s levels. That’s a problem for the economy and the Federal Reserve.
3 minute read
What a Warsh Fed Would Mean for Interest Rates and Inflation Policy
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for chair of the Federal Reserve, may find it challenging to persuade other voting members of the Fed to cut rates.
4 minute read
Powell’s Term as Fed Chief Ends Soon. His Words Carry More Weight Than Ever.
Nearly everyone expects the Fed to pause rate-cutting at its policy-setting meeting this week. The main attraction will be Chair Jerome Powell’s postmeeting news conference.
3 minute read
How the Attacks on the Fed Could Backfire
The Trump administration’s push for lower interest rates could forestall expected rate cuts.
Long Read
Trump Is Getting a New Fed. He May Not Be Happy With What It Does.
The Federal Reserve acts based on economic data, and it is unlikely to cut interest rates as quickly as Trump would like.
Long Read
Tariffs Crimped Hiring in 2025. Why This Year Looks Better.
The Trump administration’s levies likely reduced payroll growth by up to 19,000 a month in 2025, Federal Reserve researchers found.
3 minute read
GDP Growth Keeps Beating Expectations. How Hot Can This Economy Get?
U.S. economic growth has defied forecasts, even with elevated interest rates, trade disruptions, and a cooling labor market. What the experts may be getting wrong.
Long Read
Wage Growth Is Slowing as the Labor Market Cools. What It Means for Job Mobility.
A weaker job market and sluggish wage gains will pressure consumer spending and add to affordability fears.
3 minute read
A Murky Labor Market Is Coming Into Focus. The Fed Will Have to Act.
The risks to the labor market probably remain strong enough to compel the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again at the upcoming Dec. 9-10 policy meeting.
3 minute read
Japanese Policy Holds the Key to Global Markets, Not the Fed
If Japan raises interest rates to halt the yen’s slide, liquidity will evaporate, upending stock and bond markets around the world.
4 minute read
Rate-Cut Odds for December Fall as Split Among Fed Officials Widens
The Federal Reserve’s policy hawks are spreading their wings as inflation stays stubbornly elevated.
Long Read
The Job Market Shows Few Signs of Stress, Based on the Latest Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended payroll reports during the government shutdown, but other data sources are sending a positive message on hiring.
4 minute read
The Job Market’s Foundation Is Strong for Now, Even With Big Layoffs
Hiring looks to have ticked up in recent weeks, in a variety of industry sectors.
4 minute read
The Fed Will Soon End QT to Avoid a Financial ‘Plumbing’ Problem
With bank reserves falling and the economy weakening, the Federal Reserve will likely unveil plans to stop shrinking its balance sheet.
Long Read
Fed Likely to Cut By a ‘Safe’ Quarter Point, Absent Data
The government shutdown has robbed the Federal Reserve of data that guides its interest-rate decisions. History suggests small rate changes follow.
3 minute read
Gold’s Rally Reflects U.S. Deficit. Neither Is Ending.
The yellow metal only recently passed its 1980 peak in inflation-adjusted terms. Fears about the dollar and inflation could push the price higher.
Long Read
Shutdown Muddles the Jobs Picture for Economists and the Fed
The Federal Reserve may not have any government data to study ahead of its October policy meeting.
Long Read
