The Economy

New Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran argued in Barron’s in 2024 that interest rates needed to rise. Now, building a case based on rents and falling immigration, he thinks they need to fall much further.

The Federal Reserve’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections revealed an unusually wide range of estimates for future interest rates. But don’t ignore it.

From transportation to labor to fertilizer, the cost of food production is on the rise. The latest CPI report reflects the impact.

Businesses are struggling to determine how fluctuating tariff policies will impact their bottom line and consumer demand.

The Fed could cut in September, but that doesn’t mean the beginning of another easing cycle.

AI could be playing a role in hiring decisions at companies leading the charge in implementing this technological advance, but it accounts for only a small portion of the labor force.

Hiring has slowed in the aftermath of President Trump’s Liberation Day announcement. Expect layoffs and more inflation next.

The Federal Reserve hasn’t seen two governors break ranks with the board since 1993. It could happen at this month’s FOMC meeting.

The president wants to reduce the trillion-dollar interest cost of the government. To do so he needs the Fed to slash rates, Treasury to hike T-bill issuance, and stablecoins to boost demand.

Eating habits can provide subtle clues to how consumers are feeling about the economy and their own financial health.

June jobs data handily beat expectations. But the report was full of asterisks. What matters is tariffs, inflation, and corporate profits.

A fractured Fed gives the president more ammunition and further fuels the narrative that the Fed is too late in cutting rates.

As the federal debt passes $37 trillion, the government’s interest expense is soaring. The President’s tax and spending bill will add to the debt.

Pessimistic readings from the University of Michigan survey are at odds with economic trends. A change in methodology may be partly to blame.

May employment data showed 139,000 jobs added, higher wages, and unemployment at 4.2%. But despite some asterisks to the numbers, there’s no reason for the Fed to cut interest rates soon.

Fed officials fret that the $1.7 trillion market for private credit has grown so big it could pose a risk to financial stability.

The Big Beautiful Bill makes for ugly deficit math. That’s one of many factors pushing up long-term Treasury yields.

Coming Trump appointments are expected to steer the Federal Reserve on a different course.

Companies, consumers, and the Federal Reserve all are waiting to assess the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs. It could be a long wait.

In fact, there’s a long history of presidents putting pressure on Fed chiefs to cut interest rates. But President Trump’s public harangues to fire Jerome Powell are unprecedented and could create more difficulties.

Rather than rely on lagging government data, investors can consult more up-to-date signals on employment and spending, from weekly credit spending to Broadway show attendance. .

Recession odds are rising as Trump’s tariffs sink bond yields, oil prices, and stocks. So, too, are the odds of multiple Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.