Name: Trump Tariffs on the Road to Deglobalization
Uploaded: 2025-05-07T19:41:00Z
Duration: 5 min 38 s
Description: Free Expression: Have we misjudged the impact of the Trumpian disruption? Could the effect be better understood, in part, as the progression of deglobalization, which accelerated with Brexit?

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Free Expression: Have we misjudged the impact of the Trumpian disruption? Could the effect be better understood​, in part, as the progression of deglobalization, which accelerated with Brexit? Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images/will oliver/Shutterstock

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250507/0cbfefe7-509c-4942-824a-937dfe90d5bc/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Free Expression: Have we misjudged the impact of the Trumpian disruption? Could the effect be better understood​, in part, as the progression of deglobalization, which accelerated with Brexit?

Trump Tariffs on the Road to Deglobalization

If there was ever gonna be a movie written about this 100 days, it'd be "How to destroy the world's greatest economy in 100 days or less."

Narrator: Armageddon has been deferred. The doom that was supposed to follow President Trump's tariff revolution, according to almost all economists, has so far, stubbornly failed to materialize.

We're in the golden age, you watch.

Narrator: The report on gross domestic product for the first three months of the year was harder than usual to decipher.

That's Biden, that's not Trump.

Narrator: The 0.3% annualized contraction was accounted for by a surge in imports, which may have been related to stockpiling ahead of expected tariffs. But other parts of the report were cloudier and the overall picture painted certainly wasn't of an economy in free fall.

April 2nd, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day that we began to make America wealthy again.

Narrator: Then following Liberation Day and an equity bond and currency market panic, the employment report showed another month of solid job growth, calmed unemployment, and relatively benign wage inflation.

Every single president is always evaluated on how they handle the economy. This one will be as well, and I think he's taking the risk early on to be able to fix the long-term structural issues.

Narrator: It's still way too soon to celebrate. Actual tariffs imposed so far as opposed to those threatened, announced and paused, are still relatively modest. And economists are still projecting a hit in the not too distant future. Nevertheless, as yet, there are no real signs that investors have given up on America.

If you look at the GDP data from the first quarter, investments surged 22%. That's not what firms do when they're concerned about the economy.

Narrator: Perhaps on hopes that deals will be struck and the overall impact will be much smaller, markets have recovered pretty much all the ground loss since Liberation Day. Bonds have clawed back most of it. So all this prompts a question. Have we misjudged the impact of the Trumpian disruption? Could the effect be better understood as the progression of deglobalization, for example, which accelerated with the Brexit vote in Britain in 2016?

The UK has voted to leave the European Union.

Narrator: Britain's decision to leave the EU nearly 10 years ago is similar.

Take back control.

Narrator: Almost all respectable economists said the impact would be devastating.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to work it out. Less trade plus less investment, plus lower confidence equals fewer jobs, lower wages, less growth, and a weaker country.

Narrator: The remainder's logic was the same as those who fear a disaster from the Trump moves. By erecting a high trade wall between Britain and its biggest market, Brexit effect was similar to a broad tariff on our major trading partners.

Interviewer: At the risk of taking you back to a dark place, what lessons of Brexit will you apply?

Well, I think the lessons of Brexit are beginning to be applied to the United States.

Narrator: 2016, as then governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney said there was a high risk of recession if Britain left the EU. The conservative-run UK Treasury, trying to sway voters, in what Brexit proponents rightly dubbed, "Project Fear," said that voting to leave the EU would mean an immediate depression, with GDP falling by almost 4%.

I would say that they're better off without it, but I want them to make their own decision.

Narrator: The apocalypse never came.

I hope this is the first step towards a Europe of sovereign nation states.

Narrator: And when Britain eventually left the EU in 2020, like the rest of the world, it did suffer a brief recession, but that was from the COVID pandemic. No collapse came from Brexit. Today, Mr. Carney finds himself in another battle in the war between globalization and its discontent. His approach hasn't changed.

Now, when you break off or substantially rupture traded relationships with your major trading partners, Canada including, most important trading partner of the United States, you end up with slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, a weaker economy, and we're in the early stages of that in the United States.

Narrator: What difference does this all make? If we see these moves to further deglobalization not as catastrophic acts of self self-harm, but as a choice, even a rational one, we might be able to position ourselves better to deal with their consequences. We know the costs of throwing sand in the gears of frictionless trade, but there are opportunities too. More secure supply chains, a chance to nurture high-end domestic manufacturing and reduce our financial dependency on the rest of the world. And perhaps new attention to reducing the economic inequalities in the US, that globalization with its incalculable rewards for the most advantage, has exacerbated.

Since the election, the companies represented in this room have collectively announced more than $2 trillion in new investments, and we have a total of close to $8 trillion, all told.

Narrator: None of this is to say that Mr. Trump's tariff plan or the multiple shifting rationales for it make any sense.

Crowd: USA!

Narrator: But deglobalization is a reality born of long simmering popular discontent and rising economic insecurity. Among its political fruits were Brexit and Mr. Trump.

America first does not mean America alone.

Narrator: Managed right, which, it should be said Britain has failed to do with Brexit, the opportunities can generate real benefits too.

By embracing a stronger leadership role, America first seeks to restore fairness to the international economic system.

WSJ Opinion: Trump Tariffs on the Road to Deglobalization

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