Name: Trump Tax Cuts, Eight Years Later: Have They Delivered on Promises?
Uploaded: 2025-02-27T05:01:00Z
Duration: 6 min 57 s
Description: Many provisions of President Trump’s signature Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from 2017 are set to expire at the end of 2025. Three economists break down the fiscal impact of the cuts for individuals and businesses.

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Many provisions of President Trump’s signature Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from 2017 are set to expire at the end of 2025. Three economists break down the fiscal impact of the cuts for individuals and businesses. Photo Illustration: Annie Zhao

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Many provisions of President Trump’s signature Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from 2017 are set to expire at the end of 2025. Three economists break down the fiscal impact of the cuts for individuals and businesses.

Trump Tax Cuts, Eight Years Later: Have They Delivered on Promises?

The tax cut, cut, cut, cut bill.

Narrator: Many provisions of President Trump's signature 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act or TCJA are set to expire at the end of 2025. He's promised to...

Make the Trump tax cuts permanent and to cut taxes even more.

Narrator: The journal spoke to three economists who specialize in corporate taxes, pass-through business taxes. We'll explain what that means in a bit, and taxes for individuals. We asked them, "What effects did the 2017 tax cuts have? And what happens if they expire?" Let's start with corporate taxes. In 2017, the TCJA permanently reduced the top corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, which put the US more in line with other G7 countries.

We're not gonna lose our companies anymore. They're gonna stay in our country.

There was a modest effect on corporate investment that went up as a result of firms paying lower taxes.

Narrator: This is Harvard economics professor, Gabriel Chodorow-Reich. He co-authored a study that focused on the impact of a lower corporate tax. Trump's treasury secretary at the time, Steven Mnuchin, said the tax cuts would generate more than enough economic growth to help pay for the lost revenue.

Not only will this tax plan pay for itself, but it will pay down debt.

Narrator: Chodorow-Reich study found that didn't quite happen, at least not when it comes to corporate tax revenue. In 2018 and 2019, tax revenues went down substantially, bringing less money to the government, while investments by corporations tipped up. The higher corporate tax investment didn't generate enough economic growth to make up for the drop in corporate revenue from the lower tax rate. It remains to be seen whether other parts of the 2017 tax bill, like the reshoring of corporate profits, could have offset the decline.

The corporations that are giving billions and billions of dollars away to their workers, and many more are coming. I think that's really what selling this may be better than anybody could, including myself.

Narrator: In 2017, White House economic advisors estimated that corporate tax cuts would give households an average income boost between 4,000 and $9,000. Chodorow-Reich and the study's co-authors used modeling based on data from 2018 and 2019 to come up with a much lower individual wage boost of about $750 per full-time employee.

$750 per person is not nothing. So that's a glass half full version. Glass half empty version is we also need to collect tax revenue in order to have a functioning society and government. Getting that additional income cost us a lot of tax revenue.

Narrator: Now let's look at how the vast majority of small to medium business owners file taxes. They're called pass-through businesses because owners pass their taxes through their individual income filings. They didn't get the permanent corporate tax cut.

Pass-through business owners I think rightfully said, "Hey, what about us?"

Narrator: Economists Elena Patel studied the 199A provision, a deduction created in the 2017 bill that's set to expire in 2025. The provision allows a temporary 20% tax cut on qualified income for millions of business owners.

This is a huge boom for growth for these businesses.

Narrator: The problem is Patel says that there's little evidence that proves this deduction helped boost investment or employment.

So in some sense, it was just a tax cut to business owners. Anybody who runs anything out of their home, they're technically a business and they benefit from this. People who own pass-through businesses tend to be higher income, and so of course, the benefit is gonna accrue to the top. In this case, like it widely disproportionately benefited the top 1%. And so this is like some of the critique of this is that this tax cut really was targeted at the richest of the rich people in the United States.

Narrator: Republican lawmakers argued that the 199A deduction needs to be renewed.

We will see even more closed for business signs up and down Main Street when their federal tax rate jumps to over 40%.

Narrator: If the deduction is extended, its estimated to reduce federal revenue by nearly $700 billion over the next 10 years. When it comes to tax cuts for individuals, Democrats largely criticize the 2017 tax bill for benefiting only the rich.

The president is part of the top 1% and the bill is aimed to help the top 1%.

Narrator: Williams College economics professor, John Bakija says, "The reality is more complicated."

People in the top 1% of the income distribution get a tax cut that's equal to about 2% of their income. Whereas, for the middle class and lower income people, the tax cut was smaller as a percentage of their income. For people in the bottom 20% of the income distribution, the poorest 20%, tax cut was about half a percent of their income.

Narrator: The percentages look small, but in dollar amounts, the difference between the cut for the top 1% and the bottom quintile is on average more than $60,000. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the cost of extending the individual income tax cuts as more than three and a quarter trillion dollars over the next 10 years and more than 400 billion in increased interest.

And then the question will be, how much will they offset with spending cuts? But those spending cuts might very much impact low and moderate income people.

Narrator: Democrats warned that extending the 2017 tax cuts will come at the expense of programs that help Americans.

The safety net is under assault.

This whole thing feels a bit like a scam.

It is really tax cuts for billionaires.

Republicans have made clear, they will not hesitate to bleed healthcare programs dry.

We're working right now to get everybody on board. I think everybody wants to be on this train, and not in front of it.

Narrator: In February, House Republicans passed a budget blueprint that calls for at least one and a half trillion dollars in spending cuts, and no more than four and a half trillion dollars in tax cuts over the next decade. The committee for a responsible federal budget, a nonprofit group that favors lower deficits, estimates that Trump's tax priorities would reduce government revenues between 5 to $11 trillion over the next 10 years. Elon Musk's Department of Government efficiency has signaled that the work he's doing could help lower taxes.

As refining savings, that's gonna translate directly to reductions in tax.

Yeah.

Narrator: It's still an open question how Trump and Republicans will bridge that gap.

To fully extend everything is gonna cost something like five and a half trillion dollars. So that's a lot of money.

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