Name: What Comes Next for Israel and Iran?
Uploaded: 2025-06-29T14:00:00Z
Duration: 6 min 6 s
Description: Journal Editorial Report: Trump's not done making big calls.

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Journal Editorial Report: Trump's not done making big calls. Photo: Jack Guez/Reuters/Yahya Arhab/EPA/Shutterstock

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Journal Editorial Report: Trump's not done making big calls.

What Comes Next for Israel and Iran?

Here's the head of the UN Atomic Energy Agency this morning, Rafael Grossi. "US and Israeli strikes caused enormous damage to Iran's nuclear sites." Don't take my word for it. How about the IDF's chief of staff? "I can say here that the assessment is that we significantly damaged the nuclear program, setting it back by years." I repeat, years. Those that understand, those that see, those that do proper assessments recognize that what the United States military did was historic.

That was Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth Thursday calling the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities historic after a preliminary intelligence report that was leaked earlier this week suggested their impact may have been limited. We're back with Dan Henninger, Kim Strassel, and "Wall Street Journal" Editorial Board member Elliot Kaufman. Elliot, you've really looked into this many competing interpretations of the battle damage. Who's right?

Well, the more I speak with US and Israeli officials, the more I find that President Trump's initial assessment, obliterated, may actually be fair. You look at Fordow, the underground enrichment halls were targeted with extreme precision and overwhelming force. And even the United Nations, very cautious International Atomic Energy Agency says whatever centrifuges were there are destroyed. Natanz, the workhorse of Iran's nuclear enrichment program, severely damaged or destroyed. Isfahan, weaponization facilities there destroyed and the nearby tunnels have their entrances collapsed in, entombing whatever highly enriched uranium may be there according to Israeli intelligence assessments.

Paul: Kim.

So that adds up.

Yeah, Kim, what do you make of this defense intelligence agency leak about their so-called low confidence assessment of the damage? What's going on there? It's confusing.

Well, yeah, look, Paul, this was what was a very preliminary report. It seemed to have come out like a day after all of the action happened. They said it was a low confidence report and we get these different disputes in intelligence agencies all the time and especially in the very early days. And then that's why you wait. And as time goes on, you get better and better intel and then the intelligence communities come to a consensus. This looked to be a very deliberate attempt by somebody who wanted to undermine the Trump administration to leak this out, convince news outlets to run with it as definitive, and try to get ahead of the game by suggesting this was a failure. Of course, all those people that made that claim now look a little foolish because as the information has come in, it's clearly wrong.

So Dan, step back a bit and think about what we've learned about Donald Trump here. What do you think we've learned about his willingness to use force and whether or not the act in Iran has reversed to some extent the collapse of US deterrence that followed the Afghan retreat by Joe Biden?

I think that's a fair assessment and one of the main points that I believe needs to be made because it became such a dispute controversy inside the Republican party and conservative circles was whether Donald Trump was an isolationist. Clearly he is not an isolationist. This was an extraordinary use of American force and it makes clear that Trump, although he obviously prefers to avoid running wars, he will use force strategically. And I think this establishes the idea of strategic deterrence by the United States and by the US military, and I give the administration credit for this, that showed itself capable of performing at the highest possible level of execution. This was an amazing accomplishment that they did, had been practiced for decades incidentally. They had trained for a long time to do this. And so I think the world is put on notice, whether it's the Middle East, China, Russia, the United States, if pushed and if necessary, will use force to achieve its objectives.

Elliot, you talked to Israeli sources. What's the view there about this overall, this fortnight of action, including Israel's and America's? And is there concern that maybe they were called off for the ceasefire a little too early? 'Cause they were targeting the regime's institutions of repression and that stopped pretty abruptly.

The view overall is that generational objectives were secured, truly remarkable achievements that they have been waiting for. However, could they have gone further? Were there more targets they could hit? Yes, there were. However, I think they may have been ready, if not then, in a few days time. And there was a sense that the Israeli offensive would soon reach a point of diminishing returns in terms of what it could actually hit on the ground. There are only so many targets, and Iran, while its missile supplies were being degraded, did have plenty more, a few thousand perhaps.

That they could have hit Israel with.

Yes, that's right.

All right, so we'll see if it's too soon. But Israel thinks it's a great success. That is, of course, significant.

WSJ Opinion: What Comes Next for Israel and Iran?

From the award-winning opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal, the Journal Editorial Report sees columnists and members of the Journal Editorial Board debate the major economic, political and cultural issues of the day. 
From the policy debates to the political fights, each week get critical perspective and the analysis you need on developments from Washington.

WSJ Opinion: What Comes Next for Israel and Iran?

WSJ Opinion: Journal Editorial Report

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