Name: Powell Warns of ‘Challenging Scenario’ for Fed Amid Trump Tariffs
Uploaded: 2025-04-16T18:35:00Z
Duration: 2 min 47 s
Description: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs announced by President Trump were larger than anticipated and “highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation.”

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Under CEO Cristiano Amon, semiconductor company Qualcomm is bringing its technology to multiple industries. This conversation was recorded on May 28, 2025.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs announced by President Trump were larger than anticipated and “highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation.” Photo: Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP/Getty Images

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs announced by President Trump were larger than anticipated and “highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation.”

Powell Warns of ‘Challenging Scenario’ for Fed Amid Trump Tariffs

The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated, and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth. Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation. Inflationary effects could also be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices, and ultimately, on keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored. We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close. The administration, as I mentioned in my remarks, is implementing significant policy changes and particularly trade now is the focus and the effects of that are likely to move us away from our goals. So unemployment is likely to go up as the economy slows in all likelihood, and inflation is likely to go up as tariffs find their way, and some part of those tariffs come to be paid by the public. So that's the strong likelihood. And you know, my hope is that we'll get through this and get back. We're always gonna be aiming for maximum employment and price stability. That's what we do. I do think we'll be moving away from those goals probably for the balance of this year, or at least not making any progress, and then we'll resume that progress as we can. Most of the time when the economy is weak, inflation is low and unemployment is high, and both of those call for lower interest rates to support activity and vice versa, so most of the time the two goals are not in tension and they're not really in tension now. The labor market is still strong, but, you know, the shock that we're experiencing, the impulses we're feeling are for higher unemployment and higher inflation, and, you know, our tool only does one of those two things at the same time. So it's a difficult place for central banks, you know, to be in, in terms of what to do, and so, you know, the best we can do is we actually have a little provision in our consensus statement, which is the thing that we vote on to embody how we approach these questions. What we say is we will look at how far the economy is from each of those two goals, and then we'll ask, might there be different paces at which they would approach those goals? We'll look at those things and think about them, and we'll make what will, no doubt, be a very difficult judgment. Again, we're not experiencing that now, but we could well be in that situation, as I mentioned in my remarks.

Powell Warns of ‘Challenging Scenario’ for Fed Amid Trump Tariffs

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